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<title>the conformal verdict gate</title>
<desc>A funnel. About 9.2 thousand predictions enter on the left and meet a single vertical cut, the conformal gate at alpha 0.10. Three bars on the right carry the outcome, their lengths proportional to the measured shares: act at 13.5 percent which the agent may act on, reverify at 26 percent where a human re-confirms first, and abstain at 60 percent, the largest slice and the honest exit of a weak signal.</desc>
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<text x="40" y="46" font-family="ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace" font-size="22" fill="#F2F4EF" text-anchor="start">verdict_gate</text>
<text x="40" y="78" font-family="ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace" font-size="16" fill="#98A2AE" text-anchor="start">the conformal gate as an honest funnel: one cut at alpha 0.10 separates act from</text>
<text x="40" y="102" font-family="ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace" font-size="16" fill="#98A2AE" text-anchor="start">everything else</text>
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<text x="152" y="365" font-family="ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace" font-size="20" fill="#F2F4EF" text-anchor="middle">n ≈ 9.2k</text>
<text x="152" y="391" font-family="ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace" font-size="16" fill="#98A2AE" text-anchor="middle">predictions in</text>
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<text x="400" y="186" font-family="ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace" font-size="16" fill="#98A2AE" text-anchor="start">one cut · α = 0.10</text>
<text x="440" y="222" font-family="ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace" font-size="16" fill="#F2F4EF" text-anchor="start">act · 13.5% · ≈ 1.24k</text>
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<text x="440" y="306" font-family="ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace" font-size="16" fill="#98A2AE" text-anchor="start">the agent may act on it</text>
<text x="440" y="350" font-family="ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace" font-size="16" fill="#E8A33D" text-anchor="start">reverify · 26% · ≈ 2.4k</text>
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<text x="440" y="434" font-family="ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace" font-size="16" fill="#98A2AE" text-anchor="start">a human re-confirms before acting</text>
<text x="440" y="478" font-family="ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace" font-size="16" fill="#98A2AE" text-anchor="start">abstain · 60% · ≈ 5.5k</text>
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<text x="440" y="562" font-family="ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace" font-size="16" fill="#98A2AE" text-anchor="start">the honest exit of a weak signal</text>
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<text x="460" y="614" font-family="ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace" font-size="16" fill="#98A2AE" text-anchor="middle">bar length is the measured share, not decoration</text>
<text x="460" y="640" font-family="ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, monospace" font-size="16" fill="#98A2AE" text-anchor="middle">abstain is the largest slice: the system says it does not know instead of guessing</text>
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